ISM Slump Continues

There's so much to say
That's better unsaid
Like nothing's for keeps
--The Apartments

Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index continues to print below the 50 level proposed to divide expansion from contraction. Current 47.2 reading was last seen during the Great Recession.

Recessionary predictive power of the ISM number is not great, however. As seen from the graph, there have been plenty of periods where the ISM number lingered below 50 with recessionary consequences.

That said, the longer the index stays below 50, the greater the chance of recession.