Sunday, September 22, 2019

Fortune Teller

No more broken hearts
We're better off apart
Let's give it a try
Tell me, tell me, tell me lies
--Fleetwood Mac

In summer 2007 I was in NYC helping a friend with his fledgling business. You could feel early tremors of the pending credit crisis. Dining at BLT Steak one night with several friends, I noticed the grim look on many money managers' faces after a particularly ugly day on Wall Street. Those steaks were becoming much easier to stomach than those market downdrafts and those $1000 dinner tabs.

After dinner, my buddies decided to hit the club scene while I elected to walk back to my apartment on a warm evening in the city. A couple of things stood out during that stroll. Lots of boom cranes lifting new residential high rises out of the ground. Also, lots of For Sale and For Rent signs in existing units.


I bring this up because high end NYC real estate is softening anew. Large fractions of new units remain on the market and prices are softening. More capacity is pending.

An noteworthy tell prior to the last credit market meltdown may be telling us something again.

1 comment:

Raintrees said...

Sounds like "The Skyscraper Curse" being played out.
https://jrichardduke.com/2018/08/13/the-skyscraper-curse-audio-files-consisting-of-the-introduction-and-7-parts/