Downside Surprise

"What time is my surprise party?"--Tess McGill (Working Girl)

The Pomboy girl notes the negative position of Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. The Economic Surprise Index measures deviations in economic data series results compared to forecasts.

After hitting levels from which it has always bounced materially, the Citigroup Surprise Index has officially round-tripped from -68 to -29 to -68. The deadcat thud is deafening. pic.twitter.com/00yArNUkvQ

— steph pomboy (@spomboy) June 26, 2019

When the result 'beats' to the upside, the index goes positive. When it 'disappoints' to the downside, the index goes negative.

Pomboy observes that the index, after bouncing off mult-year lows, has made a quick round trip back to the bottom of the channel.

Certainly reflective of a downside economic surprise.