Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Palace Revolution

Everywhere I hear the sound of marching charging feet, boy
--The Rolling Stones

With Donald Trump's win last night in Indiana and Ted Cruz's subsequent drop from the race, it appears highly likely we are headed for another authoritarian president--whether the next elect be Republican or Democrat. While there is an argument to be made that the present disarray in the two mainline political parties is a long term positive, I have my doubts that the republic will be able to withstand another statist regime.

By definition, extreme events are low probability affairs--at least in the near term. However, that should not discourage vigilance in keeping an eye out for factors that might spawn such 'tail risk.'

As I see it, yesterday's development in the presidential race adds one more factor to an already growing list that increases the likelihood for a major socioeconomic meltdown over the next four years. This is not a prediction. I am merely saying that the chances of an extremely negative scenario unfolding have gone up significantly in my mind's eye.

In the spirit of scenario planning, I intend to manage this risk accordingly.

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