Central Banks, Manipulation, and Risk

"Looking good Windsor. Now watch it. 30 knot crosswinds and the runway is icy. Attaboy. We've got ya...we've got ya...we've got ya."
--Col Stuart (Die Hard 2)

Good explanation of how central banks have manipulated markets and elevated risk. Suppressing interest rates has enabled leveraged speculation and forced more risk taking in search of yield. Moreover, bailing out market participants during price declines has erected an enormous moral hazard.

Near term cycles siphon off some confidence in central bank capability to keep the charade alive. At some point, the residual CB confidence will be insufficient to coil the risk spring back after it has been let go. by natural rebalancing forces

It seems unlikely that the majority of market participants will be able to correctly anticipate when this will be.

position in SPX