Monday, March 2, 2015

Jobless Recovery

I walk along the city streets
You used to walk along with me
And every step I take reminds me 
Of just how we used to be
--Naked Eyes

Prof John Taylor updates his economic recovery metrics that we first reviewed nearly a year and a half ago. His data suggest little real improvement since then.


Perhaps the most striking stat is the trend in the percentage of the US population currently working. Here we more than six years since the official end of the recession and we have about the same fraction of US citizens working now as were working at the end of the Great Recession.

As a frame of reference, Taylor provides fraction working following the '82 recession. As I happened to enter the full time work force in June, 1983, I was part of that particular uptrend.

Factors different this time around include less savings available to apply toward capital investment, previous malinvestment resulting in useless capacity, and, of course, the transfer payment bonanza which keeps many people on the dole.

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