Drawn into the stream of undefined illusion
Those diamond dreams, they can't disguise the truth
--Level 42
Dr J's latest missive, which focuses on the divergence between leading and concurrent/laggin economic indicators. His analysis suggests that downward path of leading indicators suggest deterioration in concurrent/lagging measures in next 8-12 weeks (coupla months).
Weakness is likely to emerge slowly and then accelerate. Relative to jobs, for example, his model would forecast positive but reduced payroll growth in March, followed by net job loss in April.
Should concurrent/lagging indicators continue positive, then perhaps this time is really different. Am with Dr J however in not betting on that outcome.
position in SPX
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I keep both eyes on my man. The basket hasn't moved on me yet.
~Julius Erving
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