We can dance
We can dance
Everybody's taking the chance
--Men Without Hats
Treasuries have been getting hammered since the Fed commenced QE2 last fall. However, long bonds have been catching a bid over the past week as people reduce equity risk (at least temporarily).
From a technical standpoint, the multi-month downtrend in the ishares Barclay's 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) has been broken. Should prices continue higher, it appears that near term resistance resides a couple of points above in the 94-95 range.
position in TLT
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Interest rates could stay at current record levels, or could even decline further, for some time to come. But the current low rate environment is more likely to represent a transition rather than an equilibrium period. Mises wrote: "What generates the evils is the expansionist policy. Its termination only makes the evils visible." . . . "If one does not terminate the expansionist policy in time by a return to balanced budgets, by abstaining from government borrowing from the commercial banks and by letting the market determine the height of interest rates, one chooses the German way of 1923."
~Thorsten Polleit
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