Monday, May 4, 2009

Yield Sign

Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion
--Eurythmics

The most important technical happening to me last week was the breakout in long bond yields. Yields on ten year govies now stand above 3%.


To be sure, there's a fair amount of tranched resistance above, but if this move has legs then the spectre of inflation will move to the forefront.

Rising t-note yields also make me glad that my mortgage rate locked where it did.

2 comments:

OSR said...

The Treasury can't let this last, due to all of the ARMs out there. They'll keep buying Treasuries until the yields are beaten down.

fordmw said...

As more debt is monetized, it'll be hard to keep yields down as folks dump bonds as fast or faster than UST can buy them.