Monday, October 6, 2008

Flipping Lids

So glad we've almost made it
So sad they had to fade it
Everybody wants to rule the world
--Tears for Fears

While I'm not bashful about voicing my big picture concerns, I was struck by the level of negativity in the media this weekend. When foreign correspondents pile into NYC to get first hand footage of Armageddon in progress, perhaps we're hit a near term extreme in sentiment.

Observing the futes down 200 pts last nite and then more negative vibes emanating from overseas market carnage last nite, I couldn't help feeling constructive for a trade. So, like Toddo, I found myself dusting off the bull costume this morning in order to fade 'em.

Nothing extreme, but I've legged into some pounded down tech names like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Nokia (NOK) with strong balance sheets and, dare I say, perhaps even a whiff of value. Also added to longer standing energy (e.g., VLO) and pharma (e.g., MRK) positions, and put away a sliver more commodity ETF exposure in energy and base metals.

My time horizon? Perhaps a few days/coupla weeks for most of this incremental exposure, cookie. The primary risk? Markets continue down the elevator shaft from here.

The Dow was down about 800 pts intraday today before a swift 500 pt rally in the last hr. That's the kind of action you like to see that suggests an end to a selling cascade. Then again, these times are anything but normal. We'll just have to see what the next few days bring.

positions in AMAT, MRK, NOK, VLO

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