Failure to Yield

Well I know what's right
I got just one life
In a world that keeps on pushing me around
But I stand my ground
And I won't back down
--Tom Petty

So far long bond yields refusing to back down. Recent sideways work helps relieve near term overbought conditions.

Lots of eyes on 3% if/when...

no positions

Surveys and Emotional Capture

John Cutter: Am I supposed to trust you?
Charles Rane: Trust your instincts.
John Cutter: My instincts are to wax your ass all over this floor.
Charles Rane: Those are your emotions acting without the benefit of intellect.
--Passenger 57

As these pages have previously noted, few events stimulate emotional capture more than mass school shootings. Politicians know it.

So do their media lackeys, particularly those who make it a habit of surveying people about their views on gun violence just after a mass shooting, and then report huge increases in percentages of people who favor increased gun control measures. Example here.

What they won't report is that such surveys always show spikes higher immediately following a mass shooting event. In fact, any poll taken in the wake of a tragedy is prone to indicate that more people are willing to cede liberty to government in the name of security.

Then, as time unfolds and people gather their wits, the survey numbers recede as emotions wane and reasoning processes are re-engaged.

Perfect Competition, Imperfect Theory

Those one track minds
They took you for a working boy
Kiss them goodbye
You shouldn't have to jump for joy
--Tears for Fears

Tom DiLorenzo reviews economist attitude toward antitrust action. It hasn't always been positive. He notes that nineteenth century economists were generally chilly to the idea of regulating business to 'prevent monopoly.' In fact there is little evidence that late 1800s 'robber barons' were actually robbing anyone at all, as quantities were generally increasing while prices were decreasing in nearly all sectors.

He quotes Hayek, who believed that the idea of 'perfect competition' as conceived by the economic profession in the early 20th century, where price equals marginal cost, strips away competitive behavior from industrial activity. Instead, the perfect competition model assumes that government oversight must be present to squash such behavior.

Perfect competition and its regulatory facilitator comprise bad theory that has been a drag on productivity and competitive position of US industry for more than a century.

Marching Left

The impression that you sell
Passes in and out like a scent
--The Fixx

When I saw this headline, I assumed that California Democrats were endorsing a more centrist candidate. After all, who could be further left than Diane Feinstein?

Beyond the its collective psychosis related to President Trump and Russia (or perhaps because of it), the Democratic Party's march further left is emerging as one of the biggest stories in US politics.

Don't hold your breath for broad media coverage, however. Because the mainstream media is moving in lockstep with the collective, they are deceived by the illusion that the entire group is standing still.

Institutional Failure and Self Defense

"Sorry, boss, but there's only two people I trust. One of them's me. The other's not you."
--Cameron Poe (Con Air)

All individuals have the right to defend themselves from physical aggression. The right to self-defense stems from our broader right to life--and the right to live our lives in pursuit of what each of us individually deems important. Individuals can rightfully pursue those interests as long as they do not forcibly interfere in the pursuits of others.

These rights are not granted by a politician or by a piece of parchment. They are ours naturally by birth and founded in our humanity. We may choose to surrender the right to self-defense--as Christ did during the Passion. But no one can forcibly take the right to self defense from someone else.

When their scopes are properly defined, institutions of government exist to help individuals protect their lives and liberty. Without those institutions, individuals would be less free as they would need to dedicate more of their lives fending off acts of aggression rather than peacefully pursuing their interests. The workers who populate those government institutions are in fact hired guns--strong armed agents hired to help secure life and liberty.

Contracting security duties to government agents does not absolve individuals from primary responsibility for their own self-defense. This is because institutions and their agents can fail to adequately protect their principals.

One source of institutional failure is unintentional error. In a resource-constrained world, acts of aggression often take place because there are not enough government agents to prevent all crimes from occurring. Instead, 'officers of the law' must be called to the crimes scenes reactively, and often arrive after acts of aggression have resulted in loss of life and/or property. Not being in the right place at the right time plagues the effectiveness of law enforcement agencies.

Institutional failure might stem from mistakes in cognition and judgment. As demonstrated by the recent Florida school shooting, law enforcement agencies at both federal and local levels ignored potential leads about the shooter prior to the crime. Once called to the scene of the crime, it appears police officers violated protocol by remaining outside the school rather than quickly entering and engaging an active shooter. None of these mistakes were likely intentional. Instead, they probably stemmed from 'human' causes such as information overload, poor understanding of procedure, or downright fear.

Unfortunately, institutional failure can be intentional as well. Recognizing the tremendous power wielded by government force, government agents might choose to employ that force in pursuit of their own interests--rather than in protection of the interests of others. This presents an ominous situation: Strong armed agents who turn their guns on the principals that they are supposed to protect.

Unintended or not, institutional failure is one reason why individuals must remain armed in their own defense.

Logical Scramble

"Where I come from, we pick locks. With your permission, I'll replace your old rusty one with a new deadbolt. The kind only .357 Magnums can open up."
--Jake Phillips (The Principal)

The Left's capacity for deranged thought process is never more evident than when it is in gun-grabbing mode. The sad school shooting in Florida last week provides another case in point. Consider, for example, this meme that circulated in the wake of the shooting:

Test your powers of logic for errors in the analogy attempted above. You might start with the fact that, post 9/11, knives et al were banned on commercial airplanes. At last check, knives, box cutters, and liquids of more than 3 oz have not been subject to nationwide bans (as the Left proposes for assault weapons).

The more fitting analogy would be this. Just as we ban knives and other life-threatening weapons (including AR-15s) on airplanes, we should ban those weapons in schools. The problem for the Left, of course, is that those weapons have been banned in most schools--including the Florida school that was shot up.

Obviously, those bans have not stopped school shootings. In fact, there is reason to believe that such bans invite school shootings.

A primary difference between the airport and school situations has been enforcement. To enforce the weapons ban on airplanes, airports have been turned into gestapo-like inspection stations. In most schools including the Florida site, no such rigorous inspection processes have been put in place.

As costly and as unpleasant as they would be, formal inspection stations would be a plausible way to improve school security. As in the commercial airline case, threat would not be eliminated--but it would be reduced. And, indeed, dialogue has escalated on this subject since last week's shooting.

Because such a remedy doesn't directly serve their gun prohibition interests, Leftists seem more likely to move on to a new logical scramble.

Big Inflation Scenario

Don't need money
Don't take fame
Don't need no credit card to ride this train
--Huey Lewis & the News

First, interest rates start to rise, driven by a combination of factors such as: Fed increasing short rates, general expectations of a strengthening economy, evidence of rising prices and wages in some areas, and realization that more federal debt will floated to fund a growing budget deficit.

This is where we are now. Then the following sequence of events unfolds:

The rising rates tank the financial markets and cool interest rate sensitive markets sectors such as housing.

The Fed responds, as it always does, with a bail out. Despite evidence of rising prices in goods and services, the Fed lowers the Fed funds rate.

Interest rates do not move lower, particularly at the long end of the curve, as market participants fear further inflationary effects of the Fed's easy money policy.

The Fed responds again, this time by beginning another program of 'quantitative easing' to buy bonds directly to push rates lower.

The money that the Fed prints out of thin air to buy those bonds gets circulated into the economy, thereby stoking inflation fear and evidence some more.

Big Inflation thus arrives.

This or That?

So I guess the fortune teller's right
I should have seen just what was there
And not some holy light
--Natalie Imbruglia

Elongate the time horizon on the gold chart and what do you see? Some might see what looks like a monster head and shoulders pattern nearing completion. This is bearish.

Others might see a declining pennant pattern in the midst of a long term uptrend. This is bullish.

The great debate long raging inside my head may be nearing resolution.

Environments of Aggression

Daniel LaRusso: You really think I can beat that guy?
Miyagi: No matter. Wacko teacher attitude rest in fist. Stupid but fact of life. Win, lose...no matter. You make good fight...earn respect...then nobody bother.
--The Karate Kid

Central to principled self-defense is to be ready. To anticipate danger. Part of this involves knowing factors that foster environments of aggression.

Two conditions attract aggressors like flies: weakness and surprise. Aggressors prefer to attack people who are incapable of defending themselves when attacked. And they like to attack unannounced. Weakness and surprise increase the likelihood that aggressors will be successful.

Here is a one question quiz that tests your understanding of environments that invite aggression:

Schools have always been target rich environments for bad guys. Lots of kids who are relatively weak and unprepared. Adding a promise of no guns on the premises essentially transforms schools into defense free crime zones.

Although the concept seems counter intuitive to some, schools that voluntarily arm themselves reduce conditions of threat in their environments.

Left in Psychosis

"You want to know something? I don't think Mozart's going to help at all."
--Midge Wood (Vertigo)

Cognitive dissonance-->Trump derangement syndrome-->psychosis.

Hard not to wonder whether Left will ever pull out of it...