Texas Hedge

Billy Mack is a detective down in Texas
You know he knows just exactly what the facts is
--Steve Miller Band

Previously we examined Florida data showing the changing relationship between CV19 counts and measures of severity. Higher case counts have not translated into more hospitalization or deaths.

In another 'hot spot' state, Texas, hospitalizations associated with CV19 have reportedly increased, particularly in some municipalities such as Houston. This graphic is telling:

The blue and red lines represent hospital and ICU beds occupied by COVID patients. They have been increasing. The green line represents the total state hospital bed census. No change.

These data reinforce prior observations, some from Texas, suggesting people being hospitalized WITH the virus rather than FOR it.

Alex Berenson adds some interesting observations from a Texas hospital exec:

Final screenshot. pic.twitter.com/E5cAMJOjwl

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 30, 2020

The exec suggests that during the month of June, his chain of hospitals has tested more than 2000 people with a 20% positive rate (was ~5% previously). The vast majority exhibit mild to very mild symptoms. Average age of infection is mid-30s. He notes that CV19 patients are very different now compared to previously. When testing resources were tight, most of these people would not have met the criteria for receiving a test.

What has been motivating these people to get tested? The exec estimates that about half are employer driven. People are returning to work with a sneeze or a cough, and the employer sends them home and tells them to get tested. The other half merely want to know.

Many ICU beds are being filled with patients that put off going to the hospital out of fear earlier and they are now really sick. Many of these are testing positive once admitted for something else.

He also suggests many discharge planners are being pressured to indicate CV19 as the primary diagnosis. The pay is better and many hospitals are in difficult financial positions.

The exec closes by suggesting that all of this is generally good news. More people testing positive with milder symptoms implies a lower death rate than the 'headline' reports.

Political Infection

"This trial has shown that under the stress of a national crisis, men--even able and extraordinary men--can delude themselves into the commission of crimes and atrocities so vast and heinous as to stagger the imagination."
--Judge Dan Haywood (Judgment at Nuremberg)

Nobel laureate Michael Levitt of Stanford discusses the near total abdication of science during the pandemic.

On the "same as bad flu" - with a population fatality rate approx 0.04 to 0.05% (or ~500 in a million people) over the season - it is actually pretty much the de facto impact of a bad flu.
Argument against is: "the lockdown magicks kept it low" - but this is not evidence-based... pic.twitter.com/Z5Q0eO81lA

— Ivor Cummins (@FatEmperor) June 29, 2020

"In many places, the politics has infected the science--certainly in the USA."

Quite possibly, it will be this phenomenon--the political infection not the biological one--that will be the primary focus of forthcoming analysis for years to come.

CDC Serology Survey

Shake my fist
Knock on wood
I got it bad
And I got it good
--Robert Palmer

It does appear that the CDC is conducting a CV19 antibody survey at select locations in the US. Although it reports 10 locations with samples to be collected every four weeks, results reported so far are only from six sites and the data appear to be from samples taken 2-3 months ago.

From the data they do have, seroprevalence in the April period appeared to average 3-4%--more than 10x the infection rate inferred from reported positive cases at that time. These results are in-line with other scattered antibody studies conducted during that time window.

Infection rates have certainly increased since then. Applying the 10x rule to the current 'official' CV19 cumulative case count of about 2.5 million implies that 25 million people in the US have been infected. Using a total US population of about 330 million, that implies a 7.6% prevalence.

Would not be surprised if current antibody studies indicate at least that prevalence.

Viral Seasonality

What's your name?
Who's your daddy?
Is he rich like me?
Has he taken
Any time
To show you what you need to live?
--The Zombies

Nicely done anlysis linking patterns of infection in Italy vs Peru/Brazil to general differences observed by a researcher many yrs ago.

Does Lockdown give a great bang for the buck? Or is #coronavirus seasonal by nature, with its own dynamics?

Find out in 2 minutes flat... 😉#HopeSimpson #Covid19 pic.twitter.com/zPbybjAkEO

— Ivor Cummins (@FatEmperor) June 24, 2020

Temperate northern hemisphere regions show the familiar bimodal pattern (high in early and late periods of year but low in middle months) while tropical southern hemisphere regions have more of a bell shaped pattern with a peak period lower than the northern hemisphere peak.

Superimposing those distribution patterns over the death/million curves of Italy and Peru/Brazil show a pretty compelling match.

Also note, as presenter does, similarity between Peru and Brazil. Peru did hard lockdown back in March. Brazil didn't. No significant difference in the mortality curves.

Florida Again

When it's all mixed up
Better break it down
In the world of secrets
In the world of sound
--Tears for Fears

Another follow-up using current Florida data (source).

Amazing charts here showing positive tests (cases), hospitalizations, and deaths in Florida. The link between the three has broken down completely. Positive tests are up 5x since early June but hospital admissions and deaths are no higher than mid-May... https://t.co/IRc4U7SWLq pic.twitter.com/Hh2KstQjbp

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 26, 2020

Let's break it down. Case counts up big:

Hospitalizations have NOT increased.

Deaths either.

Thus far, higher case counts, driven presumably by younger people testing positive, have not effected severity in the state of Florida. Which gets us back to why the relationships may be changing.

Unfortunately, doubt you'll see this simple analysis in the mainstream media.

Age Distributions

Pete 'Maverick' Mitchell: Actually, I came in here to keep you from making a mistake with that older guy.
Charlotte 'Charlie' Blackwood: Really? So I can go on to making a bigger one with a young guy like yourself?
--Top Gun

Following up on yesterday's missive, the state of Florida provides some of the best data on CV19 demographics. The below histograms show age distributions for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the state of Florida.

Good data here on why age of infected matters so much. Those infected now are far younger & have far greater outcomes than the elderly. https://t.co/PCxumjmXyl

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) June 26, 2020

The shift in age with severity is apparent.

Note, however, that these data are cumulative since the onset of CV19. In their current form, theAgy don't provide a sense of how demographics may have changed recently. If, as we discussed yesterday, age of hospitalization has shifted lower along with the recent trend of lower aged infections, we need to parse the data in a different way.

For example, two histograms that divide data before and after, say, the first week in June would help us see whether the demographics of hospitalizations (and other indicators) have changed recently.

Younger Hospitalizations?

They're seeing through the promises
And all the lies they dare to tell
Is it heaven or hell?
They know very well
--Journey

Mainstream media hyperventilating over new highs in CV19 case counts...

...even though positive tests are largely a function of total test counts (which are hitting daily records as well). And, although death counts continue trending down and are off 90% from peak highs...

...the media is now fixating on hospitalizations. which have ticked up:

The reasoning mind should recognize one disconnect right away. Because hospitalizations are not a lagging indicator relative to positive cases, why are hospitalizations up only 5-10% from their recent lows while counts are up about 100%?

But why are hospitalizations up at all? This is a fair question since the average age of a person found to be actively infected with CV19 has fallen considerably over the past few weeks. Since younger people are far less likely to be seriously impaired by CV19 infection, we shouldn't expect positive cases among these people to translate into hospital stays.

Of course, lacking aggregate hospital census data, we don't know the age demographics associated with upticks in admission. It is possible that the demographic hasn't changed. Even though more young people are testing positive for the virus, it may still be that it is primarily older people being admitted for virus treatment.

However, some medical personnel are suggesting that the data are being influenced by people who are returning to hospitals in larger numbers for routine care--including elective surgeries that were postponed during the height of the pandemic. All hospital patients are now being tested for CV19 as standard procedure.

I’m a Texas physician. We’re seeing patients for routine care that just happen to be Covid+. They come to the ER for kidney stones, appendicitis, etc. and get dx with Covid on admission. This makes the Covid situation look worse than it really is.

— Jeff Stone (@JeffStone9) June 24, 2020

Some of them inevitably test positive. And since many of these patients are younger, this helps explain the phenomenon among young people. Many young people are not testing positive for CV19 and then hospitalized. Instead, they are hospitalized for other conditions and THEN testing positive for the virus.

Perspective from a hospital exec who has emailed before and whose chain includes several Sunbelt facilities. He is highly confident overall (though note that his hospitals are seeing shorter lengths of stay, which cuts a little against the longer censuses). pic.twitter.com/VE6BIFKJyQ

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 24, 2020

Stated differently, it may be that the uptick in CV19 hospitalization is due to people being admitted for something other than the virus--and not needing treatment for the virus.

btw, there is also some evidence of double counting among hospital patients as well:

From someone in Arizona (I have confirmed his identity). Obviously, cases are really rising, but there seems to be at least some double-counting going on. pic.twitter.com/NpUJnv3tt5

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 25, 2020

In any event, the resumption of more normal traffic flow to hospitals coupled with the standard protocol of testing all hospital patients for the virus helps explain a possible relationship between CV19 infection and hospitalizations among younger people.

Changing Relationships

There's no sense in pretending
Your eyes give you away
Something inside you is feeling like I do
We said all there is to say
--Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers

Mainstream media has been busy hyping increased CV19 case counts in several so-called 'hot spot' states, yet hospitalizations and deaths have not commensurately moved higher.

Sure, case counts are likely going higher in large part due to more CV19 testing happening on a daily basis. But why the breakdown in relationship between cases and deaths (or hospitalizations for that matter)?

One possibility is that there has been a change in the demographics of infection. For example, Florida's governor has noted that, whereas the average age associated with CV19 infection was mid-60s a few weeks back, today the average age is below 40. This points to the likelihood that there are more younger people now being tested. It also seems likely that increased mobility among the young as states reopen introduces more chances for infection. Since young people are far less likely to be seriously impaired by CV19 infection, that could explain the declining relationship between case counts and deaths.

Another possibility is that the virus itself is losing strength. One way to think about it is that, early in the progression of transmissible disease, pathogens target the most vulnerable first in a survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary pattern. As the 'easy prey' are eliminated, then locating attractive hosts becomes increasingly difficult. The most virile versions of the pathogen may go into the ground with victims.

Immunity could also increase. Resistance builds among those who have been infected and have since recovered. Natural immunity could also build. Virus infections are notoriously seasonal. The 'flu season' generally ends in spring as people get outside more and collect sunshine Vitamin D that strengthens their immune systems.

It is also possible that the virus itself might mutate into weaker forms as well.

We're likely seeing a combination of both. Younger demographics of case counts and declining virility are lowering health risks of CV19. This is changing relationships between case counts and outcomes.

When will the media catch onto this is? We can be sure that it will be far after the fact.

Splintering Myths

"You're here because you know something. What you know you can't explain, but you can feel it. You've felt it you entire life, that there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad."
--Morpheus (The Matrix)

Several times in my adult life I have encountered situations where my accumulating life experiences were telling me something different than what I had been taught in school to be 'true.' I have since come to understand, as suggested by institution theory, that myths often become truth thru institutional processes such as education.

For purveyors of myths, schools become channels for myth transfer.

My sense is that many social responses that we are witnessing today have been driven by transfer of myths to vulnerable young minds who accepted them as truth.

I'm hopeful that many will feel Morpheus's splinter--that something that they thought was true does not jibe with reality--and then resolve to reverse the process.

Splinter those myths.

Signaling Compliance

"It's easy to transfer out of a group, Jesse. It's pretty hard for a man to transfer out of his obligation. But then, every man has to play it the way he sees it."
--General Frank Savage (Twelve O'Clock High)

We've discussed masks as a mechanism for virtue signaling. It seems increasingly clear that, for those who value liberty in particular, some people are viewing masks as a signal of compliance or allegiance to authority.

“Nonconformity is the highest evolutionary attainment of social animals.” -Aldo Leopold

If you know something is wrong, DO NOT DO IT. The fact that “your crowd” does it is no excuse. https://t.co/oWkzTxqk5Y

— Stacey Rudin (@stacey_rudin) June 22, 2020

Moreover, those individuals are wondering, as indicated above, why they must be forced to wear masks if others can choose to wear masks and maintain distance from others using their own volition.

Why not let each individual decide?