Antibody Studies

Shiver and say the words
Of every lie you've heard
--Echo & the Bunnymen

'Antibody studies' are finally starting to roll in. The studies seek to estimate the percentage of people who have already been infected by COVID-19 by checking for the presence of serum antibodies in large samples (n = 100s or 1000s of individuals).

Results are streaming in. NYC, Boston, Santa Clara, LA, Miami--among others locations (hoping someone aggregates these studies soon on a website).

All suggest similar. The prevalence of COVID-19 among the population is much higher than official reported infection counts--orders of magnitude higher. Estimated prevalence from the antibody studies ranges from 4% to over 20% in some jurisdictions. Projecting these results suggest that tens of millions of Americans have been infected with COVID-19.

It should be noted that COVID antibodies may take 2-3 weeks to develop in the bloodstream after infection, meaning that the infection rate measured in a particular antibody study likely under-reports true prevalence at a single point in time. This is why antibody tests for prevalence need to be repeated to better understand incidence (rate of change) as well.

With total infection counts much higher than expected, fatality rates are much lower than reported--and certainly far lower than initially forecast. Alex Berenson believes COVID-19 death rates are likely to settle in the 0.25% - 0.40% range (deaths/# infected basis).

5/ Add all this up, and the COVID death rate will likely settle into the 0.25%-0.4% range (1 in 250 people infected to 1 in 400). Far from 20 times higher than flu. Meanwhile, the median age of death is 78-80. And unlike the flu, #SARSCoV2 is basically not dangerous to children.

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 24, 2020

It should be acknowledged that the Stanford folks were on top of this from the beginning. It began with Dr Ioannidis' call for prevalence and incidence testing (along with his analysis of the Diamond Princess population sample with conclusions and projections largely in-line with what we're seeing). Other Stanford professors weighed in as well, arguing that COVID infection rates were likely to be far higher than initially reported thus pushing fatality rates far lower--and that, consequently, draconian lock-down measures were likely to do far more harm than good. They echoed the call for prevalence studies.

Now, with the antibody data streaming in, another Stanford doc suggests that policymakers must focus on the data and fundamental biology, rather than clinging to woefully inaccurate hypothetical projections, to thoughtfully remove restrictions and restore order.

Although many people will not welcome the findings, antibody studies help to awaken reasoning minds.