COVID Dissonance

Take the children and yourself
And hide out in the cellar
--Mike and the Mechanics

Cognitive dissonance is mental stress realized when holding contradictory beliefs or thoughts, or by the appearance of new information that consists with existing beliefs. Because cognitive dissonance is difficult to live with, our minds seek to relieve it.

One way to resolve cognitive dissonance is to modify your beliefs or thoughts in the direction of truth. If, for example, you initially believed that COVID-19 pandemic would kill millions of people worldwide, and subsequent data suggest that the virus was much milder than originally thought, then you would concede that your forecast was mistaken. By doing so, of course, you would have to endure some psychic pain associated with admitting that you were wrong.

However, people tend to be loss averse, meaning that, in the case of cognitive dissonance, they are reluctant to cope with the anguish of being wrong. As such, individuals are more likely to pivot away from truth. To avoid psychic pain, they are likely to 'double down,' and escalate their commitment to losing intellectual positions. In the COVID situation, you will be prone to cling to your belief that the virus is a large-scale killer. Those who do not share your views on the COVID-19 pandemic become the enemy.

As the COVID threat dissipates, we should therefore expect multitudes who bought into the original COVID story to collectively dig in their heels and insist that the worst is yet to come.

They will do this until their minds can find a less painful, more convenient way to get off the ride.