Saturday, January 12, 2019

Trumpet of Doom

I can see that it won't be long
You grow cold when you keep holding on
--Frida

In forecasting theory, the 'trumpet of doom' reflects the axiom that the likelihood of forecasting error increases with the amount of time until the event that is being forecast.


Forecast the weather a minute from now, not much forecasting error. Forecast the weather a few days from now, more forecasting error. Etc.

Many forecasters, including global warming proponents, ignore the trumpet of doom to their  detriment.

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