Monday, June 13, 2022

Yen Destruction

One day you feel quite stable
The next you're coming off the wall
But I think that you should warn me
If you start heading for a fall

--Saga

When leverage + money printing start going way wrong, the billiard balls begin careening around the table. One never knows where the blow ups will occur.

This time around, Japan is becoming an epicenter. Faced with unrelenting Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention, the yen has been getting pounded and sits at 20+ yr lows. 

Now, with the 10 yr Japanese government bond (JGB) yield hitting the upper band tag in the BOJ's yield curve control program, the BOJ has bought about 1.5 trillion yen's worth of JGBs. If the pace continues through end of month, the BOJ will have purchased about 10 trillion yen's worth of bonds.

To put that in perspective, that would be the equivalent of the Fed doing more than $300 billion of QE when adjusted for GDP.

It is hard not to envision outright monetary collapse if the BOJ does not take its foot off the gas soon.

What that means for financial systems worldwide, as integrated as they are, is anyone's guess.

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