Diverging Confidence

Chuck Scarett: How you feeling today?
Joe Scheffer: Confident.
--Joe Somebody

Two marquee measures of consumer confidence are diverging. The Conference Board's measure (blue line) is on the high end while the University of Michigan's measure (orange line) is tanking.

Although, as historical data indicate, the two series track each other well, there are periods of divergence--primarily because the Conference Board's measure appears to lag slightly behind UMich. 

When that divergence hits extremes, it is often noteworthy. Past instances where the difference between the two series has been this wide have corresponded to recessions.

It won't be too long before we find out whether history rhymes again.