Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Updated Charts

You can make or break
You can win or lose
That's a chance you take
When the heat's on you
And the heat is on

--Glenn Frey

Updated version of two very important charts. The first is Fed funds rate and the SPX since 1980. What does this chart suggest about how for the Fed can raise before crying uncle?

The second is Fed balance sheet assets and the SPX since the onset of QE. What does this chart suggest about how much the Fed can unwind its balance sheet before crying uncle?

As we have asked before, when facing a choice between keeping money/credit in the system to keep markets from collapsing or removing money/credit from the system to fight inflation, the Fed will choose which option?

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