How Low is High?

And there's some
Chance we could fail
But the last time
Someone's always there for bail
--Toad the Wet Sprocket

What is the max that the Fed can push its Fed funds rate before it stops? Judging from the downtrend line defined by previous cycle highs in the graph below, the ceiling appears to be about 1.5%.

Much lower, as we've said, than market participants seem to be forecasting.