Expert Error

"Just remember, license never replace eye, ear, and brain."
--Miyagi (The Karate Kid)

Prof Williams discusses the predictions of experts, which "have often been wrong beyond imagination." Forecasts of economic disaster under President Trump are but recent examples of how wrong experts can be.

Yale professor Irving Fisher's 1929 assessment that "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" just three days before the stock market crashed has always been one of my favorites.

Politics, war, sports, markets, social trends. No subject has been spared the error of expert prognostication.

Why do experts get it so wrong? Overconfidence. Linear thinking. Public stage. Recency bias. Group affiliation. They all likely play a role.

The lesson: Don't accept predictions from experts without thought. Use your brain. Understand the rationale. Be critical.

And be careful.