Monday, August 31, 2020

Conspiring Thoughts

"A good conspiracy is unprovable. I mean, if you can prove it, it means they screwed up somewhere along the line."
--Jerry Fletcher (Conspiracy Theory)

Alex Berenson touches on a question that has been nagging me for months.
 Has the perverse behavior by public health and political actors across broad geographies been scripted, or has it resulted from unplanned cooperation among various factions that suddenly recognized common opportunity?

I used to think the latter. But the persistent, coordinated nature of the movement increasingly finds me seriously considering the former.

Sunday, August 30, 2020

Fill In the Blank

You must explain
Why this must be
Did you lie
When you spoke to me?
--The Clash

Follow Alex Berenson's train of thought here and fill in the blank. Public health agencies are classifying deaths as COVID caused by matching deaths with CV19 case records...
...but inaccuracy of the diagnostic tests overstate the true infection level...

...which means that the number of people who have truly died from CV19-related causes is ____ than officially reported.

Saturday, August 29, 2020

California Totalitarianism

Relax said the night man
We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave
--Eagles

The governor of California has put out a new, completely arbitrary 'blueprint' that dictates (quite literally) which businesses can operate in the state.
All based on case counts. Why these thresholds? Why not focus on severity?
The California version of socialist totalitarianism.

Friday, August 28, 2020

Legislatures Stirring

"Splash four!"
--Lt Pete 'Maverick' Mitchell (Top Gun)

One of the biggest head scratchers during this pandemic has been the abandonment by state legislatures of their duty to represent the people through open discussion and debate of any proposed government-sponsored public health countermeasures. Instead, state legislatures have stepped back and permitted governors to rule with dictatorial power.

Perhaps things are changing. Colorado House leader is suing the governor over statewide mask order.

Better yet, Idaho House votes to end state emergency (which governor has used to justify discretionary rule) immediately.
Let's hope that a little stirring turns into some big splashing.

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Saturation Bias

Every single day
Every word you say
Every game you play
Every night you stay
I'll be watching you
--The Police

I wonder this myself. It seems the media has pulled out all stops on this one. No pretense of objectivity.
Perhaps the market for bias has become saturated.

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Lincoln and Tariffs

It was a shakedown cruise
And now we're sending out the news
There ain't no victory at sea
Unless it's mutiny
--Jay Ferguson

These pages have occasionally considered the myths surrounding Abraham Lincoln, often with the help of Professor Tom DiLorenzo. In this article, DiLorenzo discusses how Lincoln's position on tariffs helped vault him to the presidency.

By the 1850s, the world was largely moving away from mercantilist policy. Protective tariffs were being eliminated across Europe in favor of free trade. By 1857, the 15% average American tariff was the country's lowest import tax rate of the nineteenth century. The subsequent Confederate Constitution outlawed protectionist tariffs altogether.

Leaders in Northern states, however, were reluctant to surrender wealth gained from decades of cronyism afforded by the American System. They wanted to continue tariff protections as well as government funded 'internal improvement' projects. They also lusted for a central bank controlled by politicians similar to the Bank of England.

Lincoln was the ideal presidential candidate for the going institutionalization of the American System. He was a devout protectionist who, through his railroad industry connections, could wire himself into influential industrialists and media moguls in the North to get out the protectionist vote.

Two days before Lincoln's inauguration, his predecessor James Buchanan signed the Morrill Tariff bill into law which legally raised tariffs on some imports by 100%+ and hastened Southern secession proceedings.  The South, you see, had already borne the brunt of protective tariffs for many years. Being primarily agricultural producers, Southern states had to purchase manufactured goods either from the North (where protectionist tariffs permitted higher prices on domestic goods) or from producers abroad (whose goods were being taxed at exorbitant tariff rates). Consequently, Southern standard of living was being compromised whenever American tariffs were imposed on imported goods.

Lincoln would subsequently sign ten more tariff-increasing bills over the course of his presidency.

In his first inaugural address, Lincoln stated that it was his 'duty' to collect the newly implemented tariffs. He promised that, in one of the more thinly veiled threats uttered in presidential history, there would be no 'invasions' or 'bloodshed' as long as states dutifully collected the requisite tariff fees on imported goods. He subsequently imposed naval blockades on several Southern ports, including Charleston, to ensure tariff collection.

We know how that worked out.

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Real Super Spreader

I bet you're wonderin' how I knew
'Bout your plans to make me blue
--Marvin Gaye

Hard not to recognize truth in this.


The real super spreader of this virus has been the media.

Monday, August 24, 2020

False Case Counts

Yeah there's a storm on the loose
Sirens in my head
Wrapped up in silence
All circuits are dead
--Golden Earring

As predicted by some, lots of false positives showing up in pro sports CV19 testing. Of course, they have the resources to get more tests.
Everyday people, however, usually get just one test. And false positive or not, that record goes into the official case count data base.

How many case counts being reported are the result of testing error?

Reinforces the lunacy of using case counts to assess pandemic severity.

Sunday, August 23, 2020

Dictatorship

And baby I'll rule, I'll rule, I'll rule, I'll rule
Let me live that fantasy
--Lorde

Suppose a viral epidemic hits a state ruled by a dictatorship. What would the dictatorship do in response?

Compare that to the measures taken by many states supposedly ruled by republican form of government.

What is the difference?

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Good Graphic

I've been looking so long at these pictures of you
That I almost believe that they're real
I've been living so long with my pictures of you
That I almost believe that the pictures
Are all I can feel
--The Cure

Nice graphic that visually compares case count (top series) vs severity count (bottom series).
Obvious question is why should policymakers be focused on case counts--particularly those based on diagnostic tests with considerable error?