#WeWantToPlay

Daniel 'Rudy' Ruettiger: I'm sorry I never got you to see your first game here.
Fortune: Hell, I've seen too many games in this stadium.
Daniel 'Rudy' Ruettiger: I thought you said you never saw a game...
Fortune: I've never seen a game from the stands.
Daniel 'Rudy' Ruettiger: You were a player?
Fortune: I rode the bench for two years. Thought I wasn't being played because of my color. I got filled up with a lot of attitude. So I quit. Still not a week goes by that I don't regret it. And I guarantee a week won't go by in your life that you won't regret walking out and letting them get the best of you. Do you hear me clear enough?
--Rudy

Because they have been unable to keep pro sports on the sidelines, authoritarians are seemingly pulling out all stops to cancel the college football season. Reports are circulating that the Big Ten and Pac 12 will announce cancellations tomorrow.

Statists have an edge here, since higher ed is tightly coupled to the same highly charged institutional field where socialist disruptors have been exerting influence.

However, people are pushing back. College players, families, coaches, athletic depts, politicians are using the hashtag #WeWantToPlay to symbolize their resolve to play this fall.

Arkansas’s head coach has endorsed #WeWantToPlay. Get ready, about to be a stampede of coaches to follow. https://t.co/4WHGz27He2

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) August 10, 2020

This morning, Florida governor Ron DeSantis said that not only should the ACC and SEC play this fall, but schools should actively recruit players away from schools in conferences that decide to shut their programs down. Would think they would collect a fair number of recruits.

AM @outkick is all about the battle to save college football — and all college athletics. @GovRonDeSantis is our guest and says SEC & ACC should play & recruit away Big Ten players if that conference won’t play. It’s fantastic. Go listen & subscribe: https://t.co/jEdVeVQzau

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) August 10, 2020

This is quickly escalating to something much greater than fall football. Should people triumph and claw back the season from the corona crowd, institutional pressures for CV19-related compliance could weaken considerably.

Libido Dominandi

And baby I'll rule, I'll rule, I'll rule, I'll rule
Let me me live that fantasy
--Lorde

During a class discussion of the consequences of government intervention in production and trade, a student once exclaimed in frustration, "Why can't they just leave us alone?"

The answer: libido dominandi--the lust to dominate. The desire to control others. Particularly via the strong arm of government.

There are few more powerful forces of evil.

Theories of Viral Response

"I hate losses, sport. Nothing ruins my day more than losses."
--Gordon Gekko (Wall Street)

As strange as the past few months have been, there are actually theories that help explain the unusual behavior of people and policymakers. These pages have been documented a few. Let's review some of them here.

Social identity theory. Behavior of out-group members is criticized while behavior of in-group members is largely given a pass. Because leftists tend to be, by definition, more collectivist, we should expect in-group/out-group norms to be more prevalent among those on the political left. Helps explain division of CV19 discourse and policies along political lines.

Institution theory. Institutions are rules and norms that exert pressure for sameness and compliance. Pressure for 'isomorphism' can be classified in one of three types: coercive (laws, regulations), normative (customs, common practices), mimetic (imitating behavior of others). Mimetic isomorphism is particularly prevalent in uncertain times--which helps explain quick spreading policies such as lockdown and mask wearing.

Agency theory. Agents are supposed to work on behalf of their principals, but often pursue their own interests at the principals' expense--particularly when principals are unable to monitor/assess agent work. Helps explain behavior of public health officials as well as efforts to manipulate data to hide error.

Resource dependence theory. Entities are rarely self-sufficient. Instead, they must trade with others to obtain resources necessary for survival and growth. Larger resource providers exert more power over smaller dependents. Helps explain why sectors highly dependent on government funding, such as health care, are likely to fall in line with CV19 policy mandates.

Threat rigidity theory. Facing conditions of threat, individuals, groups, and organizations tend to do two things. One, they restrict information processing channels to reduce information overload and to economize attention on lessons learned from dealing with past threats. Two, they tighten control processes by centralizing decision making authority. These actions combine to rigidify response to threat. Creative solutions are shunned in favor of customary responses that worked well to quell previous threats. When the nature of the threat differs radically from previous episodes, then failing to consider novel responses results in a reinforcing loop of maladaptive behavior. This theory, coupled with the next one, says much about collective response to a new virus.

Fast and slow thinking. People posses two decision making processes. System 1 is emotional and reactive. Instead of deliberately processing information which takes time and effort, this 'fast thinking' processes makes snap decisions. The vast majority of decisions are made using fast thinking processes. System 2 is rational and data driven. It collects evidence and deliberates before deciding. This slow thinking process--the truly rational one--is rarely used. It is easy to surmise that most people have been engaging their fast thinking system 1 brains when making sense of the CV19 pandemic and associated policy responses.

Transaction cost economics. Econ 101 assumes that exchange is cost-free. In reality, 'transaction costs' accompany trade. Search, contracting, arbitration, translation, regulation. The higher the transaction costs, the less likely people trade on the market (outsource) with other specialists. Instead, they will pull more activities in-house (insource) and diversify. Higher transaction costs associated with CV19, particularly those imposed by regulation (mask wearing, hand washing, sanitizing, spacing), are keeping people from trading with each other.

Prospect theory and escalation of commitment. You plan out what seems like a great strategy. You begin implementing it. But it doesn't work. What to do? Rather than cut your losses and change course, you will be prone to keep going and perhaps even escalate your commitment. A key reason: loss aversion. People hate losses more than they like gains. This theory says much about why officials are unlikely to reverse failing CV19 policies.

My sense is that these threads could be woven into an interesting theory of viral response.

Opting Out

We can dance if we want to
We can leave your friends behind
Because your friends don't dance
And if they don't dance
Well, they're no friends of mine
--Men Without Hats

Currently, when people choose to 'opt out' of an activity, it is commonly assumed that they are doing so for safety reasons. They are afraid of becoming infected with the virus or of transmitting the virus to others.

This is undoubtedly true in many cases.

However, it is also true that some are opting out because of the oppressive regulatory environment that they would face by opting in. Freedoms are being restricted. Transaction costs are rising.

In Galtean fashion, if some players are not permitted to operators freely, then they won't take the field. Instead, they'll look for a different game.

Latitude Attitude

Can't you hear
Can't you hear the thunder?
You better run
You better take cover
--Men at Work

Another seasonality-based visual analysis of three 'hotspot' countries south of the equator. What do they have in common?

Three countries with rising cases on three different continents that were all praised for lockdowns in April. What do they have in common? @kylamb8 @FatEmperor

Latitudinal seasonality is the signal. Politics, lockdowns, moral blame games are all noise. pic.twitter.com/RBTODwsPvA

— Purgatory (@lovethevee) August 6, 2020

Latitude.

Golden Reorientation

People talking
They're saying that you're leaving
So unhappy
With the way that you've been living
--John Waite

Gold closed yesterday at over $2020/oz. Record high. It is up another $25 this am.

Silver making hay too. Up over a buck this am to ~$27. Miners moving in sync. Pan American Silver (PAAS) now more than a triple from March lows.

Using terms from punctuated equilibrium theory (Gersick, 1991; Tushman & Nadler, 1985), after a long period of convergence, it feels like reorientation is underway.

References

Gersick, C.J.G. (1991). Revolutionary change theories: A multilevel exploration of the punctuated equilibrium paradigm. Academy of Management Review, 16: 10-36.

Tushman, M.L. & Romanelli, E. (1985). Organizational evolution: A metamorphosis model of convergence and reorientation. In L.L. Cummings & B.M. Staw (Eds.), Research in organizational behavior, vol. 7: 171-222. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.

positions in gold, PAAS

Reported vs Occurred

Help, I'm stepping into the twilight zone
Place is a madhouse
Feels like being cold
--Golden Earring

We've discussed the manipulation of death counts using the backdating approach previously in the long train of CV19 data corruption. Here is a nice analysis of recent Florida data.

The blue bars represent the day the deaths were reported by the health dept...and the media over a recent four day. The yellow bars represent the date those deaths actually occurred.

If you merely follow the headlines, then you're being led to believe the CV19 deaths have been spiking higher over the past few days. In reality, only 37% of those reported deaths actually occurred during those four days. The rest occurred days, even weeks back.

This is epic misrepresentation of the situation. The data manipulation going on here is despicable.

Functional Expertise

"Jo, talk to the doctors. Find out everything there is to know about lactic acidosis."
--Lt Daniel Kaffee (A Few Good Men)

Nice point here. Determined minds are capable of developing high degrees of proficiency on a subject in a short amount of time.

Litigators become experts in every case’s subject matter. They have to in order to depose scientific experts. It’s not a remarkable skill.

— Stacey Rudin (@stacey_rudin) August 2, 2020

One does not have to be a credentialed 'expert' to develop functional expertise.

After all, if lawyers are capable of doing it, then it is within the grasp of anyone.

On the Marx

It happened one summer
It happened one time
It happened forever
For a short time
--The Motels

Back in March a statement like the one below would have seemed hyperbolic.

Call it what it is. This is a Marxist revolution branded as a viral epidemic. Hyperinflation and poverty coming soon.

— Wokeman, #KBF (@Wokeman8) August 2, 2020

Not anymore.

One of the few explanations left standing for correlated authoritarian actions worldwide is that socialist factions are banding together to exploit what, in their minds, is sudden opportunity to advance an agenda created long ago.

How High?

So can't you see me standing here
I got my back against the record machine
I ain't the worst that you've seen
Ah, can't you see what I mean?
--Van Halen

What sectors obtain large fractions of their overall revenues from the state?

Government itself and its associated agencies
Military contractors
Education, including public K-12 and higher ed
Health care

Resource dependence theory posits that organizations will be prone to comply with the wishes of large resource providers.

Stated differently, when the state says "Jump," the above sectors say "How high?"