Three Peat

When my back is broken
When the mountain moves away
All the dreams and promises
That we give
We give away
--INXS

Ten yr yield touched 3% yesterday. Not terribly high by long term historical standards but noteworthy given recent context. Last time at 3% coincided with Fed chair Powell folding like a cheap suit and reversing the Fed's tightening policies in 2018.

The above chart shows the relative field position then vs now. Last time, the Fed had already raised rates several times by the time 10 yr yields touched a 3 handle. This time, we're at 3% after only one measly 25 bip increase.

More fuel for the argument that the current tightening campaign will cease far sooner than currently forecast.