Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Another Hot Print

It's too close for comfort
This heat has got
Right out of hand

--Bananarama

Measured inflation still coming in hot, with monthly CPI printing at +8.3% YOY. This is far higher than the 'expert' predictions in the 6% range as pundits postulate that 'peak' inflation has already occurred.

Futures immediately sold the news, as the knee jerk reaction is that the Fed will have to behave more hawkishly.

That said, I wouldn't want to be short here. Seems like there's a lotta bad news already baked in--at least in the near term.

There is also the question about how far the Fed can actually raise rates without breaking the system. I personally suspect the answer is much lower than current consensus.

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