Friday, March 11, 2022

Hyper Connectedness and Hyperinflation

Hundred dollar car note
Two hundred rent
I get a check on Friday
But it's already spent

--Huey Lewis & the News

With 40 yr highs in official measures goods and service prices, it should not be surprising that inflation expectations are marking similar highs.

Although it is caused by increases in money supply, inflation's effect on prices can be shaped by buyer psychology. The greater the belief that money will be worth less tomorrow, then the more consumers will buy today in attempt to get ahead of that devaluation. Prices squirt higher as result.

That is why it is often said that once inflationary psychology takes hold, the toothpaste is out of the tube.

This time around, I wonder whether inflation expectations may be worse than in the past due to the amplifying effect of our increased connectedness. We know that networked individuals are more tightly coupled, meaning that they respond similarly to stimuli and disturbances. 

If the echo chambers of social networks, et al tell individuals that inflation is rocketing, might this exacerbate expectations and the 'buy today' behavior that serves as a coping mechanism?

Weimar GermanyVenezuela. Could hyper connectedness breed hyperinflation

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