Saturday, February 19, 2022

Crisis Management

"Some of you have to depart immediately. We have a crisis situation."
--Lt Mike 'Viper' Metcalf' (Top Gun)

Nice graph showing how many past Fed rate raises have ended in financial crisis--which subsequently causes the Fed to reverse course and lower rates.

This should be expected. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, thus driving more debt and leverage into the system. Raising rates stresses the leverage. 

After lowering rates, the Fed can never get rates back up to where they were before. If they did so, the additional leverage accumulated during the easing phase would rupture the system when taxed by higher rates.

This is why rates have trended lower for decades, and why the Fed is now cornered.

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