Oversimplifying

"It's never just one thing."
--Jimmy Morris (The Rookie)

Although the human mind recognizes complexity, it tends to reason simply. That can be good. In fact, it can be argued that simplification, i.e., cutting through fluff to get to the essential--to truth--is the real power of reason. 

However, sometimes in its quest to cut to the chase, the mind oversimplifies. For instance, the mind likes to think in univariate fashion. X causes Y. Rather than A, B, C, and X in some weighted combination lead to Y.

After observing X and Y go up together, the mind tends to assume a relationship. But it could just be a coincidence. Y may be going up in conjunction with A. Or with A going down. The assumed relationship between X and Y may be spurious. As it is said, correlation does not necessarily mean causation.

Reason tends to follow straight line fashion. X causes Y. Rather than X squared leads to Y. Moreover, relationships are commonly assumed to be unidirectional. X causes Y. Rather than X leads to Y which feeds back to X, and so on.

Sometimes the conclusion that X causes Y is sufficient. Simple. Straightforward. Elegant.

Other times this conclusion is an oversimplification that needs more nuancing to arrive at truth.