Unexpected Deaths

What does it matter to you?

When you got a job to do

You got to do it well

You gotta give the other fellow hell

--Paul McCartney & Wings

Interesting discussion of CV19 related mortality data between Ivor Cummins and Prof Michael Levitt of Stanford.

The focus is on 'all cause' deaths because of the problems trying to classify CV19 deaths. The difference between actual deaths due to all causes and what should be expected (forecast) based on deaths over the past few years is assumed to be due to something different from usual (i.e., 'unexpected deaths). Of course, in addition to CV19, deaths related to lockdown policies (e.g., less discretionary medical screening and treatment, adverse economic conditions, etc) will almost certainly begin to register (perhaps they already are) as different from usual.

Which also implies, btw, that 'unexpected deaths' will likely offer a meaningful estimate of CV19 deaths for a limited time.

In addition to the data presented by Dr Levitt, the conversations are also very insightful. It is too bad that similar conversations seem taboo among public health officials and the public at large.