Friday, February 7, 2020

Implied Volatility and Policy Uncertainty

Okay
Just a little pinprick
There'll be no more aaahhh
But you may feel a little sick
--Pink Floyd

Chart shows relationship between VIX and Baker et al's Policy Uncertainty Index over time.


The VIX is a measure of 'implied volatility' which can be viewed as a proxy for market-related uncertainty.

A widening gap is evident--one that began around 2000.

One possible interpretation: increasingly aggressive monetary policy is making investors comfortably numb to uncertainty happening in the larger world.

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