Cyclical or Secular?

Then one day he was shooting' at some food
And up through the ground come a bubblin' crude
Oil that is
Black gold, Texas tea
--Flatt and Scruggs

Chart shows that, over the past 8 yrs, Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock has lost money while the SPX is up nearly 2x. I doubt whether this chart truly indicates 'total return' basis, however. My charting program suggests XOM's share price down ~6% but the stock's hefty dividend closes the gap somewhat.

That said, XOM's (and the entire energy sector's) under performance is undeniable. The question is whether this under performance is cyclical or secular.

I'm betting the former.

position in XOM