Hunting Preserves

Now put your flags in the air
And march them up and down
You can live it up, live it up
All over town
--Escape Club

In lieu of the recent Waffle House mass shooting in Tennessee, John Lott once again discusses overwhelming perpetrator preference for gun free zones. He provides several links to analysis and raw data as well.

These pages have noted it many times before. Gun free zones establish hunting preserves for criminals.

MLK and the Racism Narrative

"It will happen again because people like you and me like to be lied to. We like bedtime stories."
--Jake Moore (Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps)

When a black person goes down as the result of crime, there is a large group that prefers the perpetrator of the crime to be white. Because this group believes that racism runs rampant in this country, acts of aggression by whites against blacks fall in line with the group narrative.

This is confirmation bias writ large. It offers convenient cover for actual criminals targeting black victims. Find fall guys who are white, label them as racists, and perhaps you can get away with...murder.

For years, a dedicated group of researchers have been mining evidence that refutes the 'official' story of Martin Luther King's murder. They present a compelling case that James Earl Ray was a patsy framed by a predatory state and compliant media.

In the case of JFK, invent a communist shooter to get the public behind the story. In the case of MLK, concoct a racist assassin for similar, or perhaps even more effective, purpose.

Feed the public what they want to hear and any crime is possible.

93 to 1

Everybody's talking at me
I don't hear a word they're saying
Only the echoes of my mind
--Nilsson

In the 2013 confirmation vote for James Comey as FBI Director, only one senator voted no. Who was that?

Rand Paul, of course.

Watching PG

Drawn into the stream
Of undefined illusion
Those diamond dreams
They can't disguise the truth
--Level 42

The heavy action in Procter & Gamble (PG) has caught my eye. Consumer discretionary in general has been outperforming the consumer staples category of which PG is a member.

That softness now finds PG touching its multi-year uptrend line.

Does that make the shares a value play? Maybe on a relative basis. And its 3.7% yield seems somewhat attractive in a low rate world.

But on an absolute basis, my cash flow work suggests the stock needs to come down from its current $180ish billion market cap...by a lot. My interest increases with a price closer to $50.

no positions

Shrinking Margins

I'm sick and tired of you setting me up
Setting me up just to 
Knock a knock a knock a me down
--Bruce Springsteen

Stephanie Pomboy observes the general trend toward slowing top line growth at the same time that costs are increasing.

Implication: shrinking profit margins dead ahead.

Bears are Back

I got nine lives
Cat's eyes
Abusin' every one of them and runnin' wild
--AC/DC

It took nearly two weeks, but the bears are back for another assault on the 200 day moving average.

Classic technical theory says that support weakens on each successive visit. Perhaps the third time will be the charm for the bears.

position in SPX

Touch Three

Come on, come on, come on, come on now
Touch me, babe
Can't you see
That I am not afraid
--The Doors

Continuing our yield watch, 10 yr yields briefly touched 3.03% this morning and marked four year highs before pulling back below the three percent maginot.

On a multi-year chart, 10 yr yields can be seen as tracing out a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This is bullish for yields but bearish for the bond prices. Also bearish for an over-leveraged economy dependent on perpetually low rates.

When higher rates begin to 'matter' is anyone's guess. Because the charts are suggesting that yields want to go higher yet, it seems likely that the issue will arise sooner rather than later.

no positions

Peace by Force

"By condemning an old friend without hesitation, I shall be feared."
--Messala (Ben-Hur)

Garet Garrett describes the ultimate barbarian fantasy--that world peace must be imposed by force.

The folly does not just have an external component, i.e., a country must make its military the Policeman of the World in order to keep the peace. It also applies internally, i.e., the State must police its citizens and limit freedom in the name of social harmony.

The notion that peace requires force constitutes one of the foremost oxymorons of mankind.

Back to the Highs

"You back again?"
--Floor Specialist (Wall Street)

Ten yr yields closed their strong week at, or even kitten's whisker higher, the mid February highs.

The highs of human beings and trading robots will be trained on this coming week's action. Will T-note yields be repelled by resistance here? Or will they power thru to new highs for the move?

no positions

Equitable Solution to Urban Decay

When you said goodbye
You were on the run
Tryin' to get away from the things you'd done
Now you're back again
And you're feeling strange
So much has happend, but nothing has changed
--Glenn Frey

How to prevent or reverse accumulative decay in cities? Walter Williams suggests the officials skew provision of city services toward neighborhoods that house the highly productive. Keeping the best and brightest increases the likelihood of 'net positive fiscal residual' necessary to fund city services.

As Prof Williams notes, some people might find this type of discrimination distasteful or unfair.

A far more equitable solution would be to cut back on city services altogether. No public education or libraries. Allow local residents to contract with private providers for services such as street and park upkeep.

Less 'positive fiscal residue' would be required to fund city services. Plus, the highly productive would have greater capacity to shape their urban environments. The positive spillover from productive activity would once again create opportunity in cities for lower income individuals.