Lagging Unemployment

Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion
--Eurythmics

Following up on a recent post, below is a graph of the headline number which now marks a 50 yr low.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent in April – the lowest it has been in nearly half a century. This also marks the 14th consecutive month where the unemployment rate has been at or below 4%. #BLSData #jobsday pic.twitter.com/pYxMVu6Xf9

— CEA (@WhiteHouseCEA) May 3, 2019

Keeping up the tradition of previous administrations, this White House enjoys noting (and taking credit for) positive jobs data--particularly as elections approach.

Beyond the manipulative energy applied to this series, remember that jobs and unemployment are lagging indicators. Note the pattern. Lows in unemployment commonly precede recessions.