Two Hundred Days Away

Close enough but not too far
Maybe you know where you are
Fighting fire with fire
--Talking Heads

How far away are major indexes from their respective 200 day moving averages? The COMP is farthest away, at about 9%:

The SPX is next at about 3%:

The Dow is closest to its 200 day. Already below its 50 day moving average, the DJI is only 1% from its 200 day.

How to interpret? In a trending market like we've had, moving below the 200 day moving average is one indicator of a technical breakdown. Viewed from this perspective, the Dow appears closest to breaking down and merits watching.

On the other hand, major reversals often begin with those groups that have been the object of the raciest speculation. The COMP has been that object and, as the relatively big distance between the index value and its 200 day moving average suggests, has thus far has shown little evidence of cracking.

Stated differently, the current COMP>SPX>DJI standing of the major indexes relative to their 200 day moving averages may need to reverse to DJI>SPX>COMP before we get a major trend reversal.

position in SPX