Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Contracting Expansions

Christy Wills: So tell me one more time what your solution is to this crisis.
Brantley Foster: We don't cut. We expand.
Sheila the Waitress: I agree. Expansion is a positive reaction to the universe. While retraction, or cutting back, or pulling off...those are all negative forces.
--Secret of My Success

Graph below shows annual increases in GDP following recessions for the last 60+ years. The most recent recovery stands out as the weakest.


Taken in context of the graph, however, the recent weak recovery is not a one-off event. Instead, it is a continuation of a long term trend. Recoveries have been trending down in terms of GDP growth across the study period.

Would venture a guess that the economic stimulus put forth to juice recoveries has generally escalated during this period. When viewed from thru this lens, more and more stimulus has led to less and less recovery.

As such, the picture portrays a less-bang-for-the-buck trend.

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