Sunday, November 18, 2012

Why Study the Numbers?

You never let me cross to the other side now
I'm tied to the hope that you will somehow
--T'Pau

Interesting note as always by Kyle Bass (would recommend reading his actual letter rather than the ZH summary). Just one observation here. Bass asks, "How many market participants actually study the numbers?"

Efficient market hyptheses would suggest that the number are generally well studied and the information appropriately discounted in prices. Of course, we know that markets are less than efficient in processing info.

I'm wondering whether market participants are now prone to study data to a lesser degree than in the past. One hypothesis would be that the environment has become too confusing for many investors, thereby leading them to give up cognitive study of the data. Another hypothesis would be that investors feel threatened in the present environment, thereby leading them to follow others who they feel must have accurately interpreted the data.

Still another, and not althogether unrelated hypothesis, is that investors have grown accustomed to the bailout context, and since they are confident that government has their backs they feel less need to chew thru information.

After all, why expend the effort to assessment market environments if risky behavior is insured by government?

1 comment:

dgeorge12358 said...

Economists did something even better than predict the crisis. We correctly predicted that we would not be able to predict it.
~William Easterly