Saturday, June 8, 2013

Treasury Yields Not Giving Ground

Hey baby
There ain't no easy way out
Yeah I'll stand my ground
And I won't back down
--Tom Petty

Stocks rallied on Friday but bonds sold off. Ten year yields were +4% on the day and closed at the high for the recent move.

Thus far, long bond rates have not given back ground and remain above recently defined support at .205ish. Moreover, the TNX chart pattern is developing a bullish cup-and-handlish look.


Am tempted to add to my Treasury short which is about the only thing in my book currently 'working.'

How long will risk markets stomach days like this before carry traders start nervously eyeing the exits.

position in SPX and Treasuries

Friday, June 7, 2013

Sweeping NSA Surveillance

"Careful, chief. Dig up the past, all you get is dirty."
--Lycon (Minority Report)

What would a week be without a new scandal surfacing about this administration? The scandal du jour is two massive NSA surveillance projects. One involves forcing Verizon (VZ), and likely other phone carriers, to hand over phone records of all its customers. The other involves a program that scours major Internet companies like Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) for data.

Once again, US mainstream media did not break this story. Instead, a reporter for the UK Guardian took the lead. This now makes at least five page one headline stories that Big Media in the US has whiffed on.

Yet, what could be a bigger story than a government that is hellbent on shredding the Constitution by violating people's rights on such a massive scale? This is the stuff of dictatorships, not republics.

As Judge Nap observes, the president, attorney general, and the judge who signed an open ended warrant are so blind to liberty that they are unworthy of their offices.

Many supporters of this administration are suggesting that Obama somehow does not own this problem because the Patriot Act was enacted under the Bush Administration. It's the juvenile 'He started it" argument that kids use to justify bad behavior on the playground.

We have said it before. If you inherit bad policy, you do not perpetuate or escalate it. You remove it.

no positions

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Everyone Will Lose

"You hear that Mr Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability."
--Agent Smith (The Matrix)

As interventionist policy has escalated, many investors have been searching for ways to hedge against the inevitable--against the time when intervention can no longer restrain market forces seeking to move the system back into natural balance.

While some hedges are certainly available, there is no perfect hedge. In the case of monetary collapse, for example, even someone who owns a boatload of gold will be stung by spiraling prices.

Everyone will lose to some degree.

An investor can only hope to do his/her best to minimize the damage that is coming. To emerge on the other side as whole as possible--knowing full well that the outcome will be a fraction of before.

position in gold

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Coming up Close on Support

We thought just for an instant we could see the future
We thought for once we knew what really was important
--Til Tuesday

Domestic equity markets gave up nearly 1.5% today. The action is noteworthy on a couple of fronts. Buyers are becoming more reluctant to buy the dip. Today, for example, a few afternoon attempts to lift 'em off the lows failed, and the indexes closed near the day lows. As such, the tone of the tape may be changing.

Today's action also saw prices fall out of a near term, head-and-shoulders-ish topping pattern.


We are now coming up close to the 50 day moving average and uptrend line that have technically been supporting this rally since last November. In the past, this is where buyers have dutifully stepped in to bounce the tape.

A pure technical read, therefore, suggests that chance favors a rally attempt soon. Lots of traders seem to be reading the technical tea leaves, as my sources of chatter suggested that many shorts covering late today.

In a vacuum, of course, that's bearish on the margin.

position in SPX

Trends in Academic Intellectuals and Socialism

All for freedom and for pleasure
Nothing ever lasts forever
Everybody wants to rule the world
--Tears for Fears

Intellectuals are people who traffic in ideas for a living. They either create them or distribute them or both. Academic institutions such as universities are prime environments for intellectuals.

Hayek, Schumpeter, Sowell and others have considered why it is that intellectuals lean left and favor socialistic, Big Government policies. Intellectuals may lack practical experience and thus misunderstand markets. Or perhaps they feel underemployed and blame 'capitalism' for their lack of success. Maybe they obtain psychic income from promoting policies that force aggression and control upon others.

This article considers a different question. Why have university campuses in particular been trending in the direction of favoring and promoting socialistic policies?

One reason supplied by the author is a variation of resource dependence theory (Pfeffer & Salancik, 1978). Academic institutions increasingly depend on resources supplied by the State. As subsidies replace tuition as the dominant resource stream, institutions would be foolish to bite the hand that feeds them.

Beyond tangible rewards for kowtowing to the State, pyschological motivations exist as well. Academics, like most individuals, want to exert influence and feel important. Nurturing strong connections to the State provides an avenue for living out reformist fantasies via the strong arm of government.

Another reason that I'll offer is the movement of many college units, such as business schools, toward more theory/research and less application. A half century ago many college units were like professional or technical schools--very hands on. Professors primarily came from industry. Today, professors are much more research oriented; many lack substantial hands-on credentials.

Stated differently, universities were not always the magnet for left-leaning intellectuals that they have become today.

Reference

Pfeffer, J.& Salancik, G.R. 1978. The external control of organizations: A resource dependence perspective. New York: Harper & Row.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Draped Bust Half Dollar, 1796-1807

Riley Poole: What?
Benjamin Franklin Gates: It's just that...the last time this was here...it was being signed.
--National Treasure

As the second year of the Flowing Hair half dollar wound down, the Philadelphia mint received a new coining press. Officials were eager to use the new press to turn out more pleasing coin designs.

The initial changes involved Ms Liberty on the obverse. The original figure was replaced with a different bust rendition of Ms Liberty. Engravers Robert Scot and John Eckstein are credited with the design, although inspiration came from the work of prominent US portrait artist Gilbert Stuart. It is thought that Stuart's portraits of Philadelphian Ann Willing Bingham were particularly inspirational.


1806 Draped Bust Half Dollar PCGS VF35 Pointed 6, Stem

The new design still featured a woman looking right with flowing hair. But Ms Liberty was more voluptuous, and rather than being cut off at the neck like the original Flowing Hair model, she now flaunted a plunging neckline. Her bust line was covered in drapery (thus the Draped Bust label).

Other design features were similar to the Flowing Hair type. Placement of Liberty and the fifteen (sometimes 16) stars on the obverse, the small eagle reverse, and the lettered edge all remained.

Production of this design lasted for two years and mintages were very low--less than 4000 pieces for 1796 and 1797 combined. Because few of those pieces have survived, Draped Bust half dollars from these two years are rare among US coin circulation strikes.

After 1797, half dollar production was shut down for three years, during which time the Mint concentrated on production of the more prestigious dollar denomination (which was done in a similar draped bust motif).

When half dollar production resumed in 1801, the half design was subject to changes made to the draped bust dollar design in the previous three years. On the obverse, the number of stars had been standardized at 13, reflecting the number of original states. It was probably becoming obvious that more states were joining the Union than there was space on the coin for stars.

The big change was on the reverse. The 'small eagle' design, which some likened to a pigeon, was replaced with a larger heraldic eagle adapted from the Great Seal of the United States. The stern, left facing eagle had a shield on its breast. In a break with the Great Seal design, the eagle held arrows to the left and an olive branch to the right.

Because the eagle is looking in the same direction as the arrows, some have viewed it as a warning to France and other European countries concerning the sovereignty of the US (the heraldic reverse was placed on the Draped Bust dollar in 1798 during the Adams administration). But this is purely speculation.

Above the eagle is an arc of clouds and thirteen stars. In its beak, the eagle clutches a scrolling ribbon with the inscription E PLURIBUS UNUM ("from many, one"). UNITED STATES OF AMERICA still surrounds the rims. A lettered edge similar to the Flowing Hair type indicates the denomination.

The 89/11 silver/copper alloy mix and other specifications were similar to the Flowing Hair design:

Diameter: 32.5 mm
Weight: 13.48 g
Composition: .8924 silver; .1076 copper
Edge: Lettered
Net precious metal weight: .38676 oz silver

The Draped Bust half dollar with 'large eagle' reverse was struck from 1801 to 1807 with the exception of 1804. Although dies were prepared for anticipated half dollar coinage in 1804, production never materialized. The 1804 dies were subsequently retooled with 1805 dates, leaving an interesting 1805 over 4 variety.

Mintages ranged from about 30,000 pieces annually in 1801 and 1802 to over 800,000 in 1806. Production got a boost after President Thomas Jefferson suspended dollar production in 1804 (dollars were being exported out of the country and traded for Spanish pesos of higher silver content). In fact, US silver dollars would not be struck again for circulation purposes until 1840. As such, half dollars became the 'workhorse' silver coin denomination in the United States for the next thirty+ years.

The example above comes from the relatively high 1806 mintage. It is a 'Pointed 6, Stem' variety. The top of the 6 in the 1806 date is pointed (it is knobbed in other varieties) and the stem of the olive branch protrudes below the eagle's talon (the stem is left out in other varieties).

 
This circulated example exhibits a weak strike on the obverse (the hair and date are relatively flat and without relief) but a stronger strike on the reverse (nice detail on the eagle's head and on E PLURIBUS UNUM). Like the example shown in the Flowing Hair discussion, this coin was likely stored in an album or other paper media where it gradually took on more color than one would expect from a circulated 200+ year old coin.

Another example appears below. It is from the following and final year of Draped Bust mintage. Consistent with its higher grade, this coin is much more sharply struck than the previous example. The devices are more pronounced. Plus some nice color here and there.




1807 Draped Bust Half Dollar PCGS XF40 CAC

Both of these coins were struck while Thomas Jefferson was still President of the United States.

Monday, June 3, 2013

More Giveback in Japanese Stocks

You've got me turning up and turning down
And turning in and turning around
--The Vapors

After last night's ~ 4% giveback, the Nikkei is now more than 15% off its highs from only two weeks ago. We are also now approaching a 38% retracement of the move from November.


Whether Japanese stocks find support here remains to be seen.

position in SPX

Don't Fight the Fed?

Back to life
Back to reality
Back to the here and now
--Soul II Soul

"Don't fight the Fed" is an oft repeated Wall Street mantra. John Hussman observes that it is more urban legend than truism. While comparing periods of Fed easing to Fed tightening indeed indicate higher average returns during the easing periods, those easing periods are also associated with the largest drawdowns.

Since 1940, the maximum drawdown during favorable monetary conditions has been 55% compared to 33% during unfavorable conditions.

The mechanism may be something like this. Fed intervention early in the easing cycle brings about stock market gains. The inflation increases confidence among market participants that the Fed has created permanent prosperity and has their backs in times of trouble. This drives market participants to bid stock prices to what Dr J calls 'overvalued, overbought, and overbullish' conditions.

At some point, the fundamental backdrop weakens to the point where investors realize that their euphoria has been misplaced. Hard selling commences.

Currently, his overvalued, overbought, overbullish indicators are so extended that Hussman suspects that we're close to the point in the cycle where that big drawdown is likely to begin.

Parenthetically, this is one more reason why the argument that the Fed's actions reduce market volatility is so ludicrous. Fed intervention invites risk-taking that would not have occurred in the natural rhythm of the market. Its actions jack prices artificially high, and then, like gravity, natural forces pull them back toward reality.

position in SPX

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Four Fed Questions

Doctor, my eyes
Tell me what is wrong
Was I unwise
To leave them open for so long?
--Jackson Browne

To reinforce points he has been making for months, John Hussman poses four questions to the FOMC:

1) Do you realize the extreme position you have put the US economy in? The imbalances now built into the system will cause tremendous upheaval when the current situation is reversed either thru policy change or thru sheer rebalancing effects of market forces.


2) Do you realize that equity bubbles can be blown by saving less and borrowing more, which effectively transfers economic resources from individuals to corporations? The strength of the relationship between saving less and corporate profits has been eye opening to me.


3) Are you aware that empirical evidence that generally supports a 'wealth effect' on GDP from increases in the SPX is basically nonexistent?


4) Are you aware that the seminal Phillips study focused on the relationship between unemployment and real wage inflation--not nominal inflation? The implication is that nothing except labor scarcity can increase the real price of labor. Money printing can jack nominal wages, but not real wages.


The Fed is wratcheting up an experiment that has no sound theoretical or empirical basis.

position in SPX

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Friday Drain

You got me shakin' got me runnin' away
You got me crawlin' up to you everyday
--ELO

After the dip was bought once more on Friday morning, stocks did something we haven't seen in a while. They exhibited weakness in the early afternoon and then drained into the Friday bell on relatively chunky volume. The Dow closed down over 200 pts.


This still leaves the SPX well above the well defined uptrend line initiated last November. That uptrend line is pretty much mirroring the 50 day moving average. Support resides about 30 handles below at SPX 1600.


Meanwhile, Treasuries remain soft after their sell off earlier in the week. This is interesting because the pattern has been for govies to rally when stocks decline in 'risk off' trade fashion.

The seas will change if stocks and bonds go down together.

position in SPX and Treasuries